Movies

Paul’s 2018 Academy Award Predictions

 

 

It’s that time of year again, where Oscar season is upon us and everyone is guessing who they think will be taking home the big awards this year. As I recall, last year I got most of my predictions right, although I’m still blown away how the awards ended last year with the mix up on Best Picture. I want to say that this year doesn’t have as many obvious picks for awards as last year, where many were guaranteed their award before the show even started. This year, it honestly feels like many of these awards deserve to go to many of the nominees.

But let’s see if I can get as many right this year as I did last year. As always, I’m skipping the Shorts, Documentaries and Foreign Film awards, since I’ve never seen any of those nominees, so my predictions would just be a random guess.

Best Visual Effects:

Who Should Win: “Blade Runner 2049”

Who I Want to Win: “Kong: Skull Island”

Who Will Win: “War for the Planet of the Apes”

Lots of monkeys and apes in the visual effects category this year. The most visually stunning film of the year was certainly “Blade Runner,” but in terms of effects created for the screen, it’s hard to go against the one that made an entire army and civilization of apes. This award usually goes to the film that creates an entire world out of CGI, and even though I didn’t care for the film, the one that did this the best this year was “War for the Planet of the Apes.”

Best Costume Design:

Who Should Win: “Phantom Thread”

Who I Want to Win: “Phantom Thread”

Who Will Win: “Phantom Thread”

I feel like this one is a given. The whole film is based around costumes and clothes, so of course it has to have the best design award locked up. Even though I don’t know the first thing about fashion, I do know that if this award goes to any film other than “Phantom Thread,” it’ll be a travesty.

Best Makeup and Hair:

Who Should Win: “Darkest Hour”

Who I Want to Win: “Darkest Hour”

Who Will Win: “Darkest Hour”

Another given. Gary Oldman’s performance as Winston Churchill wouldn’t have been half as good if the make-up on him wasn’t convincing. He disappeared in that role, and a lot of that is thanks to the make-up.

 

 

Best Original Song:

Who Should Win: “Remember Me” from “Coco”

Who I Want to Win: “Remember Me” from “Coco”

Who Will Win: “Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall”

“Remember Me” is the song I heard in a movie in 2017 that really stood out to me, and it really left an emotional impact every time it was used in “Coco,” so I honestly hope that it wins this award. That being said, they really love to give this award to big-name musicians and Common wrote “Stand Up for Something,” so I can see it winning this award.

Best Original Score:

Who Should Win: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Who I Want to Win: “The Shape of Water”

Who Will Win: “Dunkirk”

This one is a bit trickier than I thought. One the one hand, the scores of “Three Billboard” and “Shape of Water” truly compliment the actions and mood of the film perfectly, but “Dunkirk”‘s score added the emotional and dramatic punch that the otherwise silent film needed. “Dunkirk” wouldn’t have been half as powerful if the score wasn’t there to amplify the visuals. So, for me at least, I think that’ll give “Dunkirk” the win here.

Best Production Design:

Who Should Win: “Blade Runner 2049”

Who I Want to Win: “The Shape of Water”

Who Will Win: “Blade Runner 2049”

I honestly want “Shape of Water” to win everything that it’s nominated for, but there’s no doubt in my mind that “Blade Runner” will walk away with this one, for making an fully convincing depiction of the future in all of lavish and grotesque details.

Best Sound Mixing:

Who Should Win: “Dunkirk”

Who I Want to Win: “Baby Driver”

Who Will Win: “Blade Runner 2049”

For the award given to the best creation of its sound effects, I would love to see “Baby Driver” walk away with some kind of award after how well it used its sound effects. But I can see “Blade Runner” winning many, if not all, of the technical awards this year much like “Mad Max: Fury Road” did a few years ago.

Best Sound Editing:

Who Should Win: “Dunkirk”

Who I Want to Win: “The Shape of Water”

Who Will Win: “Blade Runner 2049”

As for the best use of merging those sound effects into a convincing and artistic film, I stick with what I said above and say that “Blade Runner” will win this one as well. Although, I would like to think that “Dunkirk” has a better chance of winning this award than Sound Mixing.

 

 

Best Editing:

Who Should Win: “Baby Driver”

Who I Want to Win: “The Shape of Water”

Who Will Win: “Dunkirk”

This might be the one I’ve hard the hardest time deciding, because I can’t think of a whole of outstanding achievements in editing this year. “Baby Driver” does come to mind, but I don’t think it was popular enough to get the win here. If I had to pick one though, I do think “Dunkirk” would be the hardest of the nominated films to edit, so I’ll pick that to win.

Best Cinematography:

Who Should Win: “Blade Runner 2049”

Who I Want to Win: “The Shape of Water”

Who Will Win: “Blade Runner 2049”

Roger Deakens finally wins the award for Best Cinematography on his most visually stunning film to date. The award has alluded him after creating visual masterpieces like “No Country For Old Men” and “Skyfall,” but there’s no doubt in my mind that “Blade Runner 2049” is the most visually pleasing film of 2017 and that he deserves to win this award.

Best Original Screenplay:

Who Should Win: “Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Who I Want to Win: “The Shape of Water”

Who Will Win: “Lady Bird”

Tons of great original ideas and screenplays in 2017, with just about all of them being true stand outs, which makes it hard to pick just one. My gut is telling me to stick with “Lady Bird” though, since it felt the most authentic and natural of all the nominees, especially when it came to the dialogue.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Who Should Win: “Logan”

Who I Want to Win: “The Disaster Artist”

Who Will Win: “Molly’s Game”

I’m not entirely sure about this one. I really want “The Disaster Artist” to walk away with the award, especially since this is its only nomination, but its not mainstream enough to get it. The voters will immediately be against “Logan” for being a super hero movie, so it won’t win. That leads me to believe that Aaron Sorkin will get the award again for “Molly’s Game.”

 

 

Best Animated Feature:

Who Should Win: “Coco”

Who I Want to Win: “Coco”

Who Will Win: “Coco”

It’s Pixar…and one of the few good animated films of the year…and I’m upset that “The Lego Batman Movie” didn’t get nominated for this one. Does the Academy just despise these Lego movies, or do they just not see them as animation?

Best Director:

Who Should Win: Greta Gerwig for “Lady Bird”

Who I Want to Win: Guillermo del Toro for “The Shape of Water”

Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro for “The Shape of Water”

And so we come the biggest awards of the night. Best Director really comes down to either Greta Gerwig or Guillermo del Toro, for different reasons. This is Gerwig’s directorial debut and she really knocked it out of the park on this one. While del Toro created this stunning fantasy exactly the way that he wanted to make it. I will say that I’ve read articles about how everyone’s convinced that del Toro is going to win this award, mostly for being snubbed back when “Pan’s Labyrinth” came out, so it makes me very happy to say that I think Guillermo will win this one.

Best Supporting Actress:

Who Should Win: Laurie Metcalf for “Lady Bird”

Who I Want to Win: Laurie Metcalf for “Lady Bird”

Who Will Win: Laurie Metcalf for “Lady Bird”

Really the only obvious choice out of the acting categories this year. While I think there’s a slight chance that Allison Janney for “I, Tonya” could win this award, Laurie Metcalf was the stand out performance in a film full of stand out performances. She wins from sheer honesty alone.

Best Supporting Actor:

Who Should Win: Christopher Plummer for “All the Money in the World”

Who I Want to Win: Sam Rockwell for “Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Who Will Win: Sam Rockwell for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Sam Rockwell is one of the most underrated yet passionate actors in Hollywood and I would love for him to keep getting more recognition. His performance in “Three Billboard” was one of the most mesmerizing roles I’ve ever seen, simultaneously making me love and hate this man. That is an unbelievable accomplishment, and he deserves the award for that alone.

Best Actress:

Who Should Win: Frances McDormand for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Who I Want to Win: Sally Hawkins for “The Shape of Water”

Who Will Win: Frances McDormand for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

This is the most difficult award for me to pick for this year’s Oscars, because I want Sally Hawkins to win with every fiber of my being. Everything is telling me that she deserves to win for giving honestly the best performance I’ve seen in the last five years from anybody. I would love it if she won…but I don’t think she will, not when Frances McDormand is her competition. I think it’ll come down to those two, but in the end, McDormand’s role speaks to the current state of our world and that’s going to play a big factor for the voters.

Best Actor:

Who Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya for “Get Out”

Who I Want to Win: Gary Oldman for “Darkest Hour”

Who Will Win: Gary Oldman for “Darkest Hour”

Much like what Eddie Redmayne did in “The Theory of Everything,” Gary Oldman disappeared in his performance as he portrayed one of the most famous and well-known Englishman of the all time. While I think Daniel Kaluuya and Daniel Day-Lewis have a chance to win, it’s going to be very hard to compete against Oldman’s performance as Winston Churchill.

 

 

Best Picture:

Who Should Win: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Who I Want to Win: “The Shape of Water”

Who Will Win: “Lady Bird”

And so we come to the biggest award of the night…hopefully there isn’t another screw up like last years’ awards.

Honestly, there are plenty of reasons to say why films like “Call Me by Your Name,” “Dunkirk,” “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards” should walk away with Best Picture, so that makes picking a clear winner very difficult.

I’ll start by saying films like “Darkest Hour,” “The Post” and “Phantom Thread” are just happy to be included. I don’t think any of those three have a chance at winning Best Picture.

“Call Me by Your Name” is vastly different from any other film nominated as well as any other coming-of-age tale I’ve ever seen. It has a chance, but a slim one, since I don’t think the Academy would have two films about homosexuality win Best Picture in back-to-back years (since “Moonlight” won last year).

Everyone loves a good war film, and “Dunkirk” might be the best war film since “Apocalypse Now.” But the Academy has yet to recognize Christopher Nolan as anything more than a big-budget popcorn filmmaker, so I think that’ll hurt “Dunkirk” for this award.

While I think “The Shape of Water” is the best film of the year and one of the best theatrical releases in many years, I don’t think the Academy shares my enthusiasm. The Academy rarely goes for fantasies, and it’s even rarer when they go for a horror film. So one that combines those two genres is even less likely to win. It would be stellar if it won, and I would be cheering all year if it did, but I just don’t see it happening.

“Get Out” has a real chance of winning this award and it would not surprise me if it did. But if there’s any mark against “Get Out,” it is the February release. If “Get Out” came out in October or November of 2017, I think it would absolutely win Best Picture. But because it was released in February of last year, most of the voters will have forgotten about it by now. I think it has the best chance of any of the films I’ve covered so far, but it’s just barely edged out by the final two films – “Lady Bird” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

“Lady Bird” is here because it is the most authentic, honest and respectful film of 2017, while “Three Billboards” is a fiery passion piece that, at times, reflects the mood and anger many people in this country have right now against their freedom of speech and law enforcement. That makes this a very difficult choice between the two. I can see both of them winning Best Picture over the other, but my gut is telling me that “Three Billboards” might have rubbed some people the wrong way and that might hurt its chances. Therefore, I think this years’ winner for Best Picture will be “Lady Bird.”

Honestly, this has been one of the better years for cinema in a while and many of the films nominated for these awards absolutely deserve to win, which makes the competition for these awards to great this year. I eagerly wait for this years’ Academy Awards and can’t wait to see how my picks and predictions compare to what actually happens. Here’s hoping that the ceremony itself is as memorable as last years’, just not quite in the same way.

 

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