Movie Reviews

Paul’s 2017 Academy Awards Predictions

I love the Academy Awards. I know that the Oscars are becoming less and less relevant to film enthusiasts, especially since the awards are just seen as Hollywood patting themselves on the back, but that was never what the Oscars meant to me. I’ve always seen the awards as a celebration of everything film, both new and old. If it was just about the awards, we would not get the hosts talking about how cinema has effected them, or tributes to movies from the past or particular genres, or the Lifetime Achievement Award (which is going to Jackie Chan this year).

There is a love for movies from the Academy Awards. And while the winners of the evening often use their moments to make statements about the world (I can garauntee at least three winners will slam Trump in some way), I try to not let that overshadow the festivites and the passion for cinema.

It is because of this undying love for movies that I am pleased to go through my predictions and picks for this years’ Academy Awards. As always, I will list who I want to win the award regardless of how likely it is they will win, who should win as an unbiased point of view while looking at who truly deserves to win, and who actually will win that award. I will also not be looking at any of the documentary awards or shorts, since I know nothing about any of those categories (although I do expect “O.J.: Made in America” to win Best Documentary).

And for the record, I did see all nine films nominated for Best Picture, but not every movie nominated for an award. Strangely enough, I only saw one of the performances nominated for Best Actress, yet saw every performance nominated for Best Actor. With all that said, let’s start by looking at –

 

Best Cinematography –

Who I Want to Win: “La La Land”

Who Should Win: “Arrival”

Who Will Win: “La La Land”

The beginning of a trend you will notice this year – “La La Land” dominating in almost every category it is nominated for. The reason for this is because Hollywood has always loved their musicals, and they are legitimately difficult to pull off in terms of cinematography, choreography, acting, pacing, editing, lighting, production design and so many other aspects. The fact that we have not had a good musical in a while is going to help out “La La Land” significantly.

 

Best Costume Design –

Who I Want to Win: “Fantastic Beasts”

Who Should Win: “Fantastic Beasts”

Who Will Win: “Jackie”

I liked the costumes in “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” so I’ll be rooting for it. But I doubt a fantasy film will walk away with this award.

 

Best Editing –

Who I Want to Win: “Arrival”

Who Should Win: “La La Land”

Who Will Win: “La La Land”

The editing in “Arrival” added to the films’ pacing and sense of mystery, so I applaud “Arrival” for that. But “La La Land” is going to clean house this year.

 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling –

Who I Want to Win: “Star Trek Beyond”

Who Should Win: “Star Trek Beyond”

Who Will Win: “Star Trek Beyond”

The aliens in “Star Trek: Beyond” were impressive, and most of them were not done digitally. That makes them even more impressive in this day and age.

 

Best Music –

Who I Want to Win: “Lion”

Who Should Win: “La La Land”

Who Will Win: “Lion”

I think the Academy is going to feel bad for giving “La La Land” so many awards that they’ll decide not to give them one of the smaller awards. This is one I see going to a different movie, and “Lion” has the best chance to get it.

 

Best Original Song –

Who I Want to Win: “Can’t Stop the Feeling”

Who Should Win: “How Far I’ll Go”

Who Will Win: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”

This one could be either “Audition” or “City of Stars” but I was more impressed by Emma Stone’s rendition about a town full of people who want more out of life. That being said, I wouldn’t mind if it went to “Can’t Stop the Feeling” or “How Far I’ll Go” either.

 

Best Production Design –

Who I Want to Win: “Arrival”

Who Should Win: “Fantastic Beasts”

Who Will Win: “La La Land”

Musicals have owned this category in the past, and I don’t think “La La Land” will be an exception.

 

Best Sound Editing –

Who I Want to Win: “Arrival”

Who Should Win: “Arrival”

Who Will Win: “Deepwater Horizon”

Like last year, I’ll point out the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing – Editing is the creation of the sound effects, Mixing is combining all those sound effects into one coherent piece.

 

Best Sound Mixing –

Who I Want to Win: “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”

Who Should Win: “Hacksaw Ridge”

Who Will Win: “La La Land”

 

Best Visual Effects –

Who I Want to Win: “Kubo and the Two Strings”

Who Should Win: “Kubo and the Two Strings”

Who Will Win: “The Jungle Book”

Nothing would make me happier than to see an animated film win Best Visual Effects, especially one like “Kubo and the Two Strings” which was the most visually unique movie of 2016. But I don’t see the Academy giving it high marks due to being animated, so I’ll pick “Jungle Book” for basically creating a whole new world.

 

Best Animated Feature Film –

Who I Want to Win: “Kubo and the Two Strings”

Who Should Win: “Kubo and the Two Strings”

Who Will Win: “Zootopia”

Again, “Kubo and the Two Strings” getting some form of recognition would be amazing due to how creative and imaginative it was with the whole paper concept. But it’s not Disney, and the Academy rarely gives out this award if Disney is involved. What’s even worse is that “Kubo” is up against two Disney films this year, “Zootopia” and “Moana.”

 

Best Adapted Screenplay –

Who I Want to Win: “Lion”

Who Should Win: “Moonlight”

Who Will Win: “Moonlight”

Now we start getting to the bigger awards.

I feel bad for “Moonlight” because it is the most honest and respectful movie of 2016, but I don’t see it winning many awards this year. This is one that it probably will win though.

 

Best Original Screenplay –

Who I Want to Win: “Hell or High Water”

Who Should Win: “The Lobster”

Who Will Win: “La La Land”

A musical winning Best Screenplay? Yeah, with the great dialogue between Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling, I could certainly see that happening.

 

Best Directing –

Who I Want to Win: “Moonlight”

Who Should Win: “Moonlight”

Who Will Win: “La La Land”

The acting was the most consistent and moving in “Moonlight” but “La La Land” will get the edge for directing a cast of thousands to sing and dance.

 

Best Supporting Actress –

Who I Want to Win: Naomie Harris from “Moonlight”

Who Should Win: Naomie Harris from “Moonlight”

Who Will Win: Viola Davis from “Fences”

Now, onto the acting awards and while the supporting awards are wide open, Best Actor/Actress are pretty much sealed up at this point.

Naomie Harris had the most difficult performance to deliver out of the candidates this year, which is why I give her the edge. But Viola Davis will walk away with the award for having to compete with Denzel Washington’s hardened jerk of a husband and come across as fiesty and strong.

 

Best Supporting Actor –

Who I Want to Win: Jeff Bridges from “Hell or High Water”

Who Should Win: Dev Patel from “Lion”

Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali from “Moonlight”

This is the one award I’m not entirely convinced on. On the one hand, Jeff Bridges gave one of my favorite performances of 2016, and Dev Patel stole the show in “Lion.” But Mahershala Ali came across as the most kind soul in a film full of twisted individuals. His character makes a lasting impression on you and Ali’s performance is the reason for that.

Best Actress –

Who I Want to Win: Emma Stone from “La La Land”

Who Should Win: Emma Stone from “La La Land”

Who Will Win: Emma Stone from “La La Land”

Part of the why I say Emma will win is because she’s the only one of the five nominees I’ve seen. But another is that she admitted to how difficult the song and dance numbers were for her. Sweating buckets after just a few minutes of physical workouts, turning beat-red quickly into a dance sequence, and yet making it all look so elequent.

 

Best Actor –

Who I Want to Win: Ryan Gosling from “La La Land”

Who Should Win: Casey Affleck from “Manchester by the Sea”

Who Will Win: Casey Affleck from “Manchester by the Sea”

The only reason I want Ryan Gosling to win is so “La La Land” can sweep the Academy Awards. For those unaware, a film “sweeping” the Oscars doesn’t mean it wins every category it is nominated, for but to win the five biggest awards of the night – Best Screenplay (Adapted or Original), Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor and Best Picture. It has only happened three times in the history of the Academy Awards (1934’s “It Happened One Night,” 1975’s “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and 1991’s “Silence of the Lambs”) and I want to see another film do that. “La La Land” might be our best chance to sweep, but that means Ryan Gosling will have to outshine Casey Affleck, the very clear favorite to win that award.

 

Best Picture –

Who I Want to Win: “Arrival”

Who Should Win: “Moonlight”

Who Will Win: “La La Land”

And so we come to the final award of the evening and one that isn’t nearly as open as the past few years. Last year was close between “Spotlight” and “The Revenant,” while 2015 had “Birdman” against “Boyhood.”

If it is a competition between two films this year, it would be “La La Land” and “Moonlight,” with a favorite leaning far more in the musicals’ favor.

“Arrival” was the most relevant movie of 2016, while also being a wonderfully entertaining science fiction film. But that sci-fi element is going to turn the voters away and ultimately “Arrival” is just happy to be nominated, along with “Lion,” “Hidden Figures,” “Fences” and “Hell or High Water.”

“Hacksaw Ridge” gets a slightly better chance than the others due to being a war movie, but not one that particularly stands out above the other films nominated this year. It adds diversity and could slip into win some minor awards, but certainly not Best Picture.

“Manchester by the Sea” is the underdog to Best Picture, but I think it’s too depressing to win the category over some of the other films nominated. Honestly, I would rather see “Lion” or “Hidden Figures” win Best Picture over “Manchester.”

“Moonlight” is the most artistic and honest film of the year and it deserves to win Best Picture. The performances all hit their marks, the cinematography was inventive for this subject matter, and it didn’t feel the need to explain how every character was feeling, letting the film show us a characters’ emotions rather than being told their feeings. “Moonlight” is the outside favorite to win.

But, with all that being said, “La La Land” pretty much has this award locked up. If there was a theme throughout most of the films nominated for Best Picture, it is one of sadness and depression, especially in films like “Manchester by the Sea,” “Fences” and to a lesser extent “Hell or High Water.” But “La La Land” is the counterpoint to all that, a colorful, vibrant, dream-like movie that celebrates classic musicals while also not being afraid of the real world. As I’ve mentioned in the past, the Academy loves it when a Best Picture nominee honors Hollywood in some way, as we saw with winners like “Argo,” “The Artist” and “Birdman.” I think “La La Land” will be joining that category.

And those are my picks for the 2017 Academy Awards. I know I am leaning far too much on “La La Land,” but I honestly see the Academy adoring the film like they did with “Mad Max: Fury Road” last year. Will “La La Land” sweep the Oscars or will they try to show a bit more diversity? Only time will tell and we will find out this Sunday.

 

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