Movies

Paul’s 2016 Academy Award Predictions

2016 academy awards

With the Academy Awards approaching, it is about that time again to go over my predictions for this years winners.

As I’ve said previously, 2015 was a wonderful year for cinema, and a fair amount of the best films this year got a lot of nominations. Personally, I would have liked to see a bit more diversity in other categories, but most of the nominated films do deserve to be in their respective categories.

To me, it looks like this year of the Academy Awards appear that they will be continuations from last year, and giving long-time artists their respect. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and “The Revenant” seem to be in position to dominate just like “Birdman” did last year, while Sylvester Stallone practically has the Best Supporting Actor award already. I’m looking forward to Best Original Score this year, because it comes down to two masters of their craft – Ennio Morricone and John Williams.

With all of that said, let’s take a look at my predictions. As with the last few years, I’ll be skipping documentaries, shorts and foreign film categories, since I know nothing about them. Although, it does sound like “Son Of Saul” will win Best Foreign Film based off of what I’ve heard.

Best Cinematography:

Who should win: “The Revenant”

Who will win: “The Revenant”

Who I want to win: “Mad Max: Fury Road”

While I adored the cinematography in “Mad Max: Fury Road,” there is no doubt that “The Revenant” was more impressive. The fight scene with the bear holds everything you need to know about why it has the best camera work of the year, as we watch this visceral and violent scene takes place, all without cutting away.

“The Revenant” is full of great examples like that, and like “Birdman” last year, this will help it achieve victory in this category.

Best Costume Design:

Who should win: “The Danish Girl”

Who will win: “Cinderella”

Who I want to win: “Mad Max: Fury Road”

Hard to say on this one, since I have not seen “The Danish Girl” or “Cinderella,” but the Academy tends to love big period piece dramas like “Cinderella,” especially when each character has their own unique dress in trying to show off the other. Plus, the level of extravagance is taken to a whole different level by adding director Kenneth Branagh, who takes the visual style of a Shakespeare play and amps it up to 11.

I predict that will be reflected in the Academy’s decision.

Best Editing:

Who should win: “The Big Short”

Who will win: “The Big Short”

Who I want to win: “Spotlight”

To me, the editing was the best part of “The Big Short,” and one of the standout examples of editing in 2015. “Spotlight” had some wonderful editing as well to keep everything contained so well, but “The Big Short” used editing to help advance the story. That gives it the win in my eyes.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Who should win: “Mad Max: Fury Road”

Who will win: “Mad Max: Fury Road”

Who I want to win: “Mad Max: Fury Road”

No one’s ever heard of “The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out The Window and Disappeared” so it won’t be winning this category. I can’t recall that much of impressive makeup in “The Revenant,” other than Leo being covered in blood and lots of hair. So, by default, “Mad Max: Fury Road” has this one sealed up.

john-williams-vs-ennio-morricone

Best Original Score:

Who should win: “The Hateful Eight”

Who will win: “The Hateful Eight”

Who I want to win: “The Hateful Eight”

This is the one that I’m really looking forward to. It will come down to two composers this year, Ennio Morricone for “The Hateful Eight” and John Williams for “Star Wars: The Force Awakens.”

Let that sink in for a minute.

This year, we are witnessing the composer of “The Good, The Bad and The Ugly,” “Cinema Paradiso” and “The Thing,” go up against the composer of “Jaws,” the Indiana Jones movies, “E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial” and every Star Wars films. Morricone is back in the genre that he excels at – Westerns. While Williams is back to composing arguably his greatest score. We are watching two legends of film scoring going at it here, and it could go to either one.

I think it will go to Morricone, because of the legacy that he has left. The Academy loves to give it to very old people who have never won the award, or haven’t won it in a long time. John Williams already has more Academy Awards than Meryl Streep, so to give it to an 87-year-old man whose career started in the early 1960s in Italy would be wonderful to see.

Best Original Song:

Who should win: “The Writing’s On The Wall” by Sam Smith

Who will win: “The Writing’s On The Wall” by Sam Smith

Who I want to win: “The Writing’s On The Wall” by Sam Smith

I’m going with the song that I enjoy listening to. I’ve never heard of the other ones, so that might be swaying my vote. But Sam Smith is well-known now and everyone loves the Bond songs.

Best Production Design:

Who should win: “The Martian”

Who will win: “The Revenant”

Who I want to win: “Mad Max: Fury Road”

For me, the film that ends up feeling the biggest with the most impressive size, scope and feel to it wins this category. I felt that, of these five films, “Mad Max: Fury Road” had that in spades, but I doubt the Academy agrees with me on that.

“The Martian” should win because it felt like it was taking place on different planet, while still feeling down to Earth. The production design was simple, yet effective. But I think it’ll go to “The Revenant” for the vast distance that the film covered and making it feel like a vast untamed wilderness.

Best Sound Editing:

Who should win: “Mad Max: Fury Road”

Who will win: “The Revenant”

Who I want to win: “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”

Before I go into my predictions, I feel like this needs to be addressed – What is the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing? Over the past few years, I’ve seen this question come up a lot and people asking why they don’t just combine the two awards together.

Here’s the difference between the two. Sound Editing is the creation of all the sound effects for a movie, outside of the music, including additional dialogue recording, or ADR for short. Sound Mixing is combining all the sounds of the film, sound effects, music, dialogue, etc., into one solid coherent piece. In other words, the editing is about the guys who make the sounds, while the mixing is for those that put it all together.

Anyway, I would love to see “Star Wars” win this one, for recreating all the classic sounds of Star Wars while updating it. But it will probably go to “The Revenant” because duplicating the noises of the wild tends to rather difficult, especially when you’re trying to recreate a wilderness that hasn’t existed for hundreds of years.

Best Sound Mixing:

Who should win: “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”

Who will win: “Mad Max: Fury Road”

Who I want to win: “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”

Again, with the distinction between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing in mind, I have to give this to the film that made its sound as amazing to listen to as the visuals were thrilling, “Mad Max: Fury Road.” As great as the sound was for “Star Wars,” the sound of “Mad Max” has grown on me and has stuck with me as long as the everything else about this masterpiece has.

oscars

Best Visual Effects:

Who should win: “Ex Machina”

Who will win: “The Revenant”

Who I want to win: “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”

The bear will give “The Revenant” the win on this one.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Who should win: “Room”

Who will win: “Room”

Who I want to win: “The Martian”

And now we begin to come down to the final categories, starting with the screenplay awards.

“Room” will take this one due to Emma Donoghue, who wrote the novel, returning to write the screenplay. That is a big deal, since nothing would be lost in the adaptation. This one comes down to how faithful the screenplay is to the source material, and “Room” will get extra points by getting the same writer as the novel.

Best Original Screenplay:

Who should win: “Spotlight”

Who will win: “Spotlight”

Who I want to win: “Spotlight”

I know this may look like it comes easy for “Spotlight” but this one was tricky.

There are a lot of well-written original films this year, including “Inside Out’ and “Ex Machina”‘s dialogue. But “Spotlight” took years of material from the Boston Globe, took everything to heart, and did there best to stay accurate to reality without diluting the story and message. It is original, yet at the same time, it is an adaptation of reality.

Best Animated Feature:

Who should win: “Inside Out”

Who will win: “Inside Out”

Who I want to win: “Inside Out”

This is the no-brainer pick this year. While “Inside Out” will face competition from “Anomalisa,” this is Pixar doing what they do best. Pixar always has this category wrapped up, and this year will be no different.

oscars-2016-predictions

Best Directing:

Who should win: Tom McCarthy for “Spotlight”

Who will win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for “The Revenant”

Who I want to win: Tom McCarthy for “Spotlight”

And now the big ones. This year, most of the awards are pretty difficult (aside from one). There are many nominees that are worthy of winning, and it can be difficult if the Academy wants to give it to those that deserve it or those that they know about.

With that said, Tom McCarthy should be the favorite to win this award, by making a film that feels less like trying to recreate reality and more like actual reality. But Inarritu is the favorite to win this award, as I’m sure the Academy would like to give the award to someone two years in a row.

Best Supporting Actress:

Who should win: Kate Winslet from “Steve Jobs”

Who will win: Kate Winslet from “Steve Jobs”

Who I want to win: Jennifer Jason Leigh from “The Hateful Eight”

This one is hard, because of all the nominees, I’ve only seen three of them – Rachel McAdams, Kate Winslet and Jennifer Jason Leigh. McAdams was good, but nothing spectacular, I don’t see “Spotlight” winning any of the acting awards. Jason Leigh was amazing to watch as she seemed to love playing the bad guy and took delight in making someone’s life a living hell.

But Kate Winslet gave that movie the necessary heart that it needed, as she kept Steve Jobs in check. If it weren’t for her, Fassbender’s performance would have been too sharp and unforgiving. I’m giving it to Winslet.

Best Supporting Actor:

Who should win: Sylvester Stallone from “Creed”

Who will win: Sylvester Stallone from “Creed”

Who I want to win: Sylvester Stallone from “Creed”

When it was announced that Sylvester Stallone was nominated for Best Supporting Actor, at an event that is normally very quiet and very reserved, the crowd erupted in a standing ovation. If that isn’t a give away clue that Stallone will win this award, I don’t know what is.

Stallone easily has this one for giving the best performance out of anybody this year.

Best Actress:

Who should win: Brie Larson from “Room”

Who will win: Brie Larson from “Room”

Who I want to win: Brie Larson from “Room”

Like with Best Original Screenplay, this is not an easy pick, but Brie Larson will win this award.

This year, it comes down between Larson and Cate Blanchett. What gives Larson the advantage is that Blanchett won the award two years ago for “Blue Jasmine,” so that might sway some voters. Same with Jennifer Lawrence for her role in “Silver Linings Playbook,” and Charlotte Rampling and Saoirse Ronan are a little too low-profile to win this award. Larson has won several awards for her performance already, so I think that helps out as well.

Best Actor:

Who should win: Leonardo DiCaprio from “The Revenant”

Who will win: Leonardo DiCaprio from “The Revenant”

Who I want to win: Matt Damon from “The Martian”

Finally, Leo will win one!

At this point, the voters feel sorry for Leonardo DiCaprio. Six times he has been nominated for Best Actor, and he has never won. While “The Revenant” was not his best performance in recent memory, it was still a captivating performance that had little to no dialogue from him. He will get this one more out of sympathy and not earning it.

best picture nominees

Best Picture:

Who should win: “Spotlight”

Who will win: “The Revenant”

Who I want to win: “Mad Max: Fury Road”

And so we come to the biggest award of the night. With eight nominees, this year it comes down to two films – “Spotlight” and “The Revenant.”

As much as I would love “Mad Max: Fury Road” to win the award this year, the Academy is probably turned off by it being one extended car chase sequence through a post-apocalyptic future. It is the one of the most technologically impressive films this year, but it will not win Best Picture.

“The Martian” has some tough competition, having a similar plot to “The Revenant” but that western survival tale still being fresh in people’s memories. This one could be sneak up on other awards, but not here.

“Room” is certainly the indie darling this year, but I don’t think the Academy will look at it beyond its screenplay and Brie Larson’s performance. It is the underdog nominee in this case, but its chances are slim.

“The Big Short,” “Brooklyn” and “Bridge Of Spies” are just happy to be here.

That leaves us with the final two, and I’m still unsure about who is going to win. My gut reaction is to say that “Spotlight” should win Best Picture for being the most respected and well-put together film of 2015.

But, the Academy is still high on Inarritu winning everything for “Birdman” last year, and to be able to come out with another high-profile film so quickly. The Academy is going to eat up Leonardo DiCaprio and the cinematography is impressive, to say the least.

Therefore, I believe that “The Revenant” will win Best Picture for 2015. I will have my fingers crossed in the hopes that either “Spotlight” or “Mad Max: Fury Road” can win the award, but the Academy is too much in love with Inarritu for the film to fail.

But we will find out very soon if my predictions are accurate. Because on Sunday, the 88th Academy Awards will take place and the best that cinema has to offer will be crowned.

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